Cristina and the Campo: Round Nine

EFE has a detailed report on a fresh round of protests by Argentina’s agricultural sector. It is the ninth such strike since March 2008, when a tax increase on international wheat exports led to months of fierce fighting between President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner and the agricultural sector.

In anger, farmers staged nationwide protests that spilled over to Argentina’s major highways, blocking the agricultural goods – primarily wheat and soy – from leaving.

Tractors take a break from one of many Tracterazos along national highway RA-9 between Buenos Aires and Rosario, May 2008. The road serves as an important land-based thoroughfare for agricultural products such as wheat and soy originating in northern Argentina en route to Buenos Aires and other foreign ports.

Tractors take a break from one of many Tracterazos along national highway RA-9 between Buenos Aires and Rosario, May 2008. The road serves as an important land-based thoroughfare for agricultural products such as wheat and soy originating in northern Argentina en route to Buenos Aires and other foreign ports.

The article mentions that the protests will last one week long and will not have a significant economic impact on the country, according to statements made by Eduardo Buzzi, the head of the Argentine Agrarian Federation, a powerful bloc of farmers.

Instead, the article talks about the strike’s political impact, suggesting that the Campo may be attempting to flex its political muscle ahead, perhaps in anticipation of presidential elections later this year.

The “political impact” is nothing compared to the billion-dollar economic impact the strikes have had over the past few years. With 2011 a pivotal election year, the political impact may yet have economic reach.

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Organized Crime in Costa Rica and the Other Balloon Effect

A few years ago, LatAmThought wrote about the balloon effect, which argues that cutting down on the production of drugs in one area simply pushes their cultivation elsewhere.

The same may be said of the transportation of drugs.

On 12 January, the AP reported on the investigation of an armed group suspected of being involved with drug trafficking in the Osa Peninsula, in the far south of Costa Rica.

The Osa Peninsula. The circled area is the area mentioned in the blog post

The Osa Peninsula. The circled area is the area mentioned in the blog post. Map via Google Maps

According to the AP, early in the morning of 10 January a group of 15 heavily armed persons entered a property in the San Josecito area, located just north of Corcovado National Park.

Local reporting from La Nacion, a San Jose-based daily, digs deeper into the story:

At 4 AM on Monday, 15 unknown people entered the territory and threatened the caretaker, telling him that if he did not leave, they would kill him.

The intruders added that they had been sent to take care of the area and would fire upon anybody who passed by.

Local residents tell La Nacion that there is a ‘command’ of men who are in the area, who are able to walk freely, even ‘buying cigarettes’ from a local tienda. Costa Rica’s Judicial Investigative Body (OIJ) says the investigation has ‘just begun’. Whether they are in fact linked to the drug trade remains to be seen.

As the AP story points out, the Osa Peninsula’s isolation puts it largely off the path of drug trafficking, a problem that Costa Rican authorities are attempting to confront. In December, Costa Rica and Panama signed an agreement to create a bi-national commission along their shared border to combat drug and persons trafficking, particularly in Paso Canoas, a nod to the shared concern about increases in drug trafficking in Costa Rica.

Yet the isolation of the finca in question, as well as its access to the sea, make it an ideal place for smugglers looking to stay below the radar to make landfall with illicit merchandise. As traditional drug trafficking routes become more and more patrolled, smugglers may look for other pathways.

Evidence of this comes from the the UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) 2010 report on the global cocaine market. The report demonstrates how seizures of cocaine have shifted from the Caribbean to Central America over the last 25 years (Figure 33 in the previous link). The same report shows that production has remained relatively stable and that seizures have increased, particularly within the last few years (fig. 22 and 23).

The data suggests that when the Caribbean routes to Miami were no longer viable, smugglers took to Mexico and Central America. As Central America becomes an increasing hot spot for drug trafficking activity, this may begin to happen at a micro level.

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In Colombia, Growth in Construction of New Hotel Rooms

Europa Press recently reported on the expected construction of 16,000 new hotel rooms in Colombia in 2011. The number is a 9 percent increase in the number of hotel rooms built in 2010.

The number represents a 4,011 percent increase in the number of new hotel rooms built in 2004. The tourist boom has officially arrived.

Golfo de Morrosquillo, Colombia. The hotel from which this picture was taken was built in 2008 as part of a resurgent tourism boom to the area.

Golfo de Morrosquillo, Colombia. The hotel from which this picture was taken was built in 2008 as part of a resurgent tourism boom to the area.

It is no longer a secret that international tourism is on the rise in Colombia. Readers of the NYTimes chose the country as the second best place to go, topping even Costa Rica, a perennial favorite travel destination in Latin America.

The data is from Proexport, a state-subsidized entity promoting Colombian exports, foreign investment, and culture. Proexport is behind initiatives dedicated to promoting Colombia abroad, including the “Colombia es Pasion” campaign and colombia.travel, which encourages people to visit Colombia with the tongue-in-cheek slogan of “The Only Risk is Wanting to Stay”.

Websites like the Medellin-based Colombia Reports, The Arepa, and many others have sprung up, offering would be visitors and expats English-language information.

The rise in hotel rooms is not just related to tourism. Global businesses are expanding their Andean operations to Bogota, shifting from a riskier political and security situation in neighboring Caracas.

Tourism however is not a boon for all sectors of Colombian society, as the LA Times highlighted in an story filed from Cartagena during the busy December season. Those who work in real estate, hotels, and travel agencies are the ones that benefit the most, but the trickle down does not reach everyday citizens, according to the article.

Those who work in construction might count themselves among the beneficiaries, as well.

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Twisted Fantasy Becomes Twisted Reality

Bocas del Toro (Bocas, as many of the large ex-pat community refer to it) is a beautiful archipelago in Bocas del Toro province. I had the good fortune to travel there recently, and the pictures say more about its natural beauty than I possible can:

DSC02984

Not your traditional mujeriago

Not your traditional mujeriego

One of many islands around Bocas

One of many islands around Bocas

The AP has been been covering the story about five murdered Americans killed by a Bocas expat. On my website, whose content differs from the core of LatAmThought’s mission but occasionally overlaps, I’ve written a commentary about this sad story.

The post can be read in its entirety here.

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The Skeletons in Brazil’s Closet

In the last year, you’d be hard-pressed to have heard or read anything negative about Brazil (with the exception of President Lula’s pesky affinity for Iran). The South American giant emerged virtually unscathed from the financial crisis and is now the media darling of the Financial Times and the Economist. Democracy has generally been very good to Brazil since the country transitioned from military to civilian governance 25 years ago.

But if you peek inside the front door, Brazil’s house is not entirely in order. Despite significant improvements over the last fifteen years, the Brazilian government still faces an uphill battle on poverty, inequality, and citizen insecurity. More than one in four Brazilians live below the poverty line. Entire swaths of the country remain beyond the reach of government and its services. These criticisms may sound familiar, or at least predictable for a country that straddles the line between the developing and developed world. But here’s one that you might not have heard: Brazil has yet to confront the disappearances and torture sanctioned and committed decades ago by its military government. Instead, Brazil shoved its skeletons in a closet and shut the door.

The country’s repressive past finds a way of creeping to the fore. A culture of impunity lingers in Brazil’s big cities and their surrounding favelas, where extrajudicial violence is rampant. As Brazil seeks a growing international role, the refusal to pursue truth and justice may well damage Brazil’s credibility, limiting its ability to act and be treated as a global power.

Last December, Paulo Vannuchi, Brazil’s Special Secretary for Human Rights, published the third National Human Rights Plan (Programa Nacional de Direitos Humanos, PNDH). The PNDH recommended the opening of military archives and the formation of an official truth commission to investigate human rights abuses committed during Brazil’s 1964-1985 dictatorship. President Lula heeded Vannuchi’s advice and signed a decree calling for such a commission; within 24 hours, Defense Minister Nelson Jobim and all three heads of the armed forces threatened to resign. Jobim and the Armed Forces feared that a truth commission would aim to revoke the 1979 Amnesty Law. Other military officials contended that they would not accept a truth commission that failed to also investigate the crimes of the Leftists during the same period. By early January, Lula buckled and the text of the PNDH was amended; in the new version, human rights violations were committed in the “context of political conflict” instead of a “context of political repression.” Human rights groups objected to the new language, to no avail, asserting that the PNDH’s more ambiguous phrasing essentially equated crimes of the armed Left with the state’s repression.

On the heels of the PNDH controversy, in April the Supreme Court (Supremo Tribunal Federal, STF) ruled that the 1979 Amnesty Law remains valid and will continue to prevent the prosecution of state agents who committed torture, murder, or forced disappearance during the 21 years of dictatorship. The STF decision ruffled some feathers internationally. Navi Pillay, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, announced that the STF had made a poor decision that perpetuates impunity. The Brazilian government now faces the judgment of the Inter-American Court for Human Rights (IACHR), having failed to comply with the Court’s earlier recommendation to investigate and punish dictatorship-era human rights violations. During the IACHR’s public hearings in May, Brazilian armed forces were accused of arbitrary detention, torture, and forced disappearance. Despite the noise generated by the UN and the IACHR, Brazil’s political leadership has not felt internal pressure to push back against the STF decision. Dilma Rousseff, formerly Lula’s chief of staff and now leading candidate for president, was reportedly tortured during her stint in jail between 1970 and 1972. But even Dilma supports the ruling, saying she is “not in favor of revenge in any form.”

So who cares about squabbles among Brazil’s human rights lawyers, the Supreme Court, and the country’s military brass (not to mention often-ineffective organizations like the IACHR and the UN)? At the very least, Brazil should. The Amnesty Law has implications for Brazil beyond the country’s small human rights constituency.

Internally, Brazil’s culture of impunity exacerbates citizen insecurity. Martha Huggins, a sociologist whose recent work has focused on police violence in Brazil, argues: “While police discourse about torture and murder has changed—as authoritarian Brazil has been replaced by a formal redemocratization and the ‘war against subversion’ by a ‘war against crime’—police autonomy continues to allow police professionals in Brazil to commit gross human rights violations. In other words, the police violence of an earlier period had not withered away even during Brazil’s redemocratization. In fact, in Brazil’s largest cities it has dramatically increased.” Between 2003 and 2009, the number of extra-judicial executions by Brazilian police is astonishing; the Rio and São Paulo police have together killed more than 11,000 people. The dictatorship’s legacy of impunity cannot be divorced from the current epidemic of extra-judicial violence. In response to the STF decision to uphold the Amnesty Law, Tim Cahill, Amnesty International’s Brazil expert, articulated as much: “In a country that sees thousands of extra-judicial killings every year at the hands of security officials and where many more are tortured in police stations and prisons, this ruling clearly signals that in Brazil nobody is held responsible when the state kills and tortures its own citizens.” If Brazil wants a professional police force that effectively fights crime and upholds the rule of law, the government must send a signal that it does not tolerate past, present, and future abuses.

Brazil does not derive its international influence from the typical “hard” currency of power: military and economic strength (despite Brazil’s celebrated growth, it still only represents 2.5% of global GDP). That means that, unlike China, Brazil typically justifies its global ambitions by what it is, not what it does. Brazil—by virtue of being a multi-racial, multi-cultural, democratic society that has begun to decrease poverty and inequality as it grows its economy—now exudes a sense of entitlement to spread this success and its influence abroad. But Brazil’s failure to adequately confront and move beyond its history of repression threatens its ability to be the global example to which it aspires. Cezar Britto, former president of the Brazilian bar association, argues that “a country that fears its own history cannot be a serious country.” If Brazil is indeed serious about its global ambitions—a permanent seat on the UN Security Council, for example—it needs to demonstrate that it’s serious about human rights too.

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Peru in the Eye of the Drug-Hurricane


A recently released UN World Drug Report states that coca cultivation in Peru has increased for the fourth year in a row . The prevailing triumvirate of coca-growers in the region has been Colombia, Peru and Bolivia, with Colombia being the region’s major producer.

Peruvian authorities have been quick to critique the UN report, explaining that these findings aren’t as alarming as they seem. However, the report could prove to be disastrous for President Alan Garcia and his APRA party as the country begins its election campaign season; Peru is scheduled to hold the first round of its general election in April of 2011.

The report lets the world know what is common knowledge among Peruvian politicians, members of its security forces, and the more informed general public: drug production and trafficking is the top internal security problem that the Andean country faces today.

A plethora of local media reports highlight how drug trafficking is spreading throughout the country. Aside from local mafias, there are reliable indications that international cartels, such as those operating in Mexico, are expanding their influence in the South American country.

Finally, there is the problem of Shining Path (Sendero Luminoso/SL). The terrorist group that took up arms against the government in 1980 continues to operate although all of its major leaders, including its founder Abimael Guzman, are either imprisoned or dead. The group is now considered a “narco terrorist” organization, as it resorts to systematized drug trafficking to fund its operations, which include attracting new members with payment from drug earnings.

It is unclear to what extent the last remnants of Shining Path (dubbed Proseguir) remain faithful to the organization’s original ideology. Nevertheless, it is clear that drug production and trafficking is not an isolated problem in Peru; it has international ties. Aside from the Mexican connection, for several years there have been rumors about an “unholy alliance” between the Colombian FARC and Sendero Luminoso. It is unclear whether this link has actually been institutionalized or is likely to develop, but it potentially poses a serious danger for both Peru and Colombia. In March, President Garcia minimized a potential alliance between both terrorist groups.

“Narcoterrorism,” rather than just “drug trafficking,” is a fitting word to portray internal security threats in contemporary Peru. While small elements of Shining Path are currently located in the valley of the Apurimac and Ene Rivers (VRAE in Spanish), a May report in the daily El Comercio argues that Shining Path troops in the VRAE (lead by “comrade Jose”) may be trying to expand out of the area into the Huallaga region, where another faction (lead by “comrade Artemio”) has recently been operating. The reason for this, according to retired Peruvian Army General Eduardo Fournier, is that “Jose” wants to prevent any further eradication of coca fields by Peruvian security forces.

Narcoterrorismo en VRAE – Perú (Parte 1 de 2) (in Spanish)


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Colombia Elections – Alliances in Numbers

A recent poll in Colombia released on June 3 says Juan Manuel Santos would win 61.6 percent of a vote, whereas Antanas Mockus would win just 29. 8 percent.

The results of the first round of elections on May 30 proved that polls are often unreliable. Precise numbers aside, the June 3 poll suggests that Santos will win handily when Colombians vote again on June 20.

Rather than use the imperfect science of polling, LatAmThought will use an even more imperfect one – political alliances – to break down how the second round of voting may play out.

Partido de la U/Partido Verde – Partido Liberal

Rafael Pardo told voters they are free to choose whomever they want. A June 2 meeting between Santos and Pardo confirmed that there would be no alliance, meaning that the 636,000+ voters, or 4.4 percent of voters, would be free to cast their vote for Santos, Mockus, or neither.

Partido de la U – Partido Conservador

The first alliance announced after the primera vuelta was that between the Conservative Party, represented in the elections by Noemi Sanin, and Partido de la U. This alliance suggests that most of the 892,000+ people (6.1 percent) who voted for Sanin on May 30 will vote for Santos on June 20.

Partido de la U – Cambio Radical

The representative of Cambio Radical, German Vargas Lleras, did exceptionally well in the elections, doubling the amount of votes that late polls expected. Interestingly, Vargas Lleras was one of the first to campaign against Uribe, announcing his candidacy in 2009, well before Uribe was prohibited from seeking a third term.

Although ideologically many of Vargas’ followers may be more aligned with Santos, some may be put off by Santos’ close ties with Uribe, as well as differences among the two parties’ top brass. Additionally, Santos may have his own presidential aspirations in 2014, which may also prohibit him from endorsing the man who he may one day run against.

Cambio Radical is expected to reach a decision about whether they will support either candidate on June 8. Until then, the 1.5 million voters (10. 1 percent) who chose Vargas Lleras remain at-large.

Partido Verde – Polo Democratico

The Polo Democratico wrote in an open letter to Mockus that they would be willing to form an alliance, though Mockus has dismissed any potential alliance with the Polo. “Cooperation” between the two parties, however, is still a possibility, and it is difficult to imagine many of 1.3 million people who voted for Gustavo Petro choosing Santos over Mockus.

Partido Verde – Abstainers

Mockus is trying to go for the more than 15.7 million Colombians who didn’t vote. Though Mockus made a statement that he will try to get votes from some of the four candidates who did not pass to the second round, he wants to focus his efforts on the abstainers. This is no easy task. It is always harder to get a new customer than keep an existing one, especially when one of the options is a vote en blanco, literally, a vote for no one.

Some analysts and experts predict that fewer people will vote in the second round, and, with less options at their disposal, that more will vote en blanco. In the first round, 224,000+ people, or 1.5 percent of all votes, were cast for none of the nine candidates running.

These potential shifts in the electorate’s preference, combined with human unpredictability make it all but impossible to predict numbers. The four runners up amassed nearly 30 percent of the vote. How many of them will vote en blanco? How many will vote blindly based upon their party lines? How many won’t show up to vote at all? This last question goes for supporters of Santos and Mockus, as well.

One thing is certain. With the wind out of the green wave’s sails, it’s looking good for Santos.

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Colombia Post-Election Analysis – From the Top

I was extremely lucky to be in Bogota last week, meeting with bunch of different people and talking about what have been some of the most unique and exciting elections in Latin America.

I could feel the excitement from my desk in Washington. The intensity was exponentially multiplied on the steps of Plaza Bolivar. Debates, campaign posters, endless conversation about the election and candidates brought me back to 2008, when the US was in the middle of deciding its own future after eight years of one man being called president.

Probably to the chagrin of my Colombian hosts, I kept bringing up the 2008 elections here in the United States. There were just too many similarities – the use of social media, mass international attention favoring one candidate, a charged electorate of first-time voters, an outsider who resembled nothing of the political establishment – not to mention my desire to talk about what I felt most comfortable with, that led me into the alluring arms of comparative politics. (I’m being sarcastic, but for those still reading who found that part funny, you may like William Manchester’s Goodbye Darkness).

This is by and large a politics blog, not a psychology one, but the two overlap in an important way. One thing that has been shown time and time again in studies of the other imperfect science is that people’s attitudes don’t always correspond to their behavior.

Another way of saying this is that intentions don’t predict actions. That is why, in spite of the polls, the enormous media flack against Sarah Palin, and a cautious reminder from a wise old man about the silent majority, I thought Obama would lose.

Unlike 2008, this time my hunch that Mockus would not fare as well as predicted was confirmed. This post attempts to do what others have already done better than me: Explain perhaps how the results of May 30 occurred.

A quick background

First, it is important to understand the background of these elections. Colombians familiar with elections past all seemed to echo the sentiment that these elections were much different than any in the past.

For a long time, it was uncertain whether Uribe would be allowed to run again. When it was finally announced he couldn’t, at the end of February 2010, the race to succeed him took off, and candidates and parties frenetically scrambled to get their campaigns into gear and get members of congress elected. They had less than three weeks to do this before congressional elections on March 14.

The congressional elections killed the chances of up-until-then Presidential frontrunner Sergio Fajardo, whose Compromiso Ciudadano por Colombia movement died out when Fajardo may have overestimated his own popularity and underestimated the power of political parties. The Partido Verde, led by a man, Antanas Mockus, who in name, appearance, and policy seemed the antithesis of the Colombian political establishment, also only won a small percentage of seats. However, unlike Fajardo, Mockus made some key moves – the most important of which was arguably getting Fajardo as a vice president – that catapulted his candidacy into a front-running position.

New Processes Yield Constant Change

Sunday’s results were just a continuation of the constant surprises the campaign has revealed.

By all accounts, Juan Manuel Santos did extremely well in the first round of elections. Santos captured 6.76 million votes, compared to the 3.12 won by Antanas Mockus, the runner-up, who will face Santos in a run-off, known as the Segunda Vuelta, on June 20. The discrepancy was much higher than the latest published polls predicted, which had the two at a near tie and predicted a Mockus victory in the second round.

There are a number of potential reasons as to why.

1)      One could be imperfect polling methods, in which pollsters called landlines, which may have favored wealthier Colombians who supported Mockus in greater numbers.

2)      As highlighted earlier, human capriciousness may have been another factor. People change their minds at the last minute, let alone within a week, a week in which a lot can happen. Pollsters were prohibited from publishing results during the final week of campaigning. Today, in their defense, they said they knew Santos would win big, but couldn’t say so.

3)      Last-minute gaffes. LatAmThought wrote nearly three months ago that not being disliked could matter just as much as being liked. The final week saw Mockus make a number of unlikeable and alienating gaffes, such as saying in a debate that he doesn’t want a dirty war (which some may have perceived as being weak against a hated enemy, the FARC) and a proposal to cap doctors’ salaries at 1 million pesos. It was not the amount of votes necessarily that cost him – the majority of Colombians are not doctors – but rather that to many, it may have exacerbated…

4)      People’s fear about Mockus’ uncertainty about what he intended to do. Indeed, the candidate who campaigned largely on the platform of having the best defined policies – German Vargas Lleras – did far better than predicted.

5)      Change is hard. Even when people say they want change, when it comes down to the moment of the decision, it is hard to pull the trigger. Mockus was different, and at the last minute, that may have scared people. In a country where many do not want to see things the way they were, any inclination that they would be could be enough for a person to change their mind

6)      The underestimated power of Uribismo. In his victory speech, Santos thanked his supporters for supporting the policies of “the best president Colombia has ever had”. His remark was met with uproarious applause. Uribe was a powerful figure in Colombian politics. Even Mockus didn’t cast himself as anti-Uribe, but a post-Uribe candidate. In the end, that may not have been enough.

Less than two weeks ago, polls were predicting a Mockus victory in the second round. That now seems all but impossible. However, as this election has shown, stranger things have happened.

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Business as Ideology

Boz has a very good post about the apparent “lack of ideology” when analysts describe drug trafficking organizations.

Occasionally some analyst will say that the drug cartels have no political ideology. However, maybe a better way to look at it is that their ideology is their business…Just because they’re not Marxists or anarchists or “freedom fighters” doesn’t mean their ideology can’t be defined.

Political beliefs can be a motivating factor for alliances and partnerships. But when it comes to business, legal or not, money is the motivation, and, as Boz rightly points out, is no less powerful. If, as the saying goes, politics makes strange bedfellows, so too does the promise of money.

LatAmThought recently wrote a commentary on this very topic. The commentary talks about how an alliance between two former ideological enemies, the FARC and former members of the AUC, has been facilitated by money.

The commentary can be read in its entirety here.

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Far-Reaching Demonstrations Against AZ Law

How divisive is Senate Bill 1070?

There was a universal rejection of the law by the Union of South American Nations (UNASUR), as well as protests on both sides of the border:

But the protests have spread to countries where a large diaspora stands to be impacted by the law. On 14 May, hundreds of Ecuadorians  in the city of Cuenca, a good 5,000 km south of Nogales, protested against the law in the name of “respect and human dignity”, as the march was called.

There’s only one physical border – that between US and Mexico. But its much more than that.

This guy says it better than I, in a video filmed in a region that looks much more like Azuay than Sonora.

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