Mexico Dodges a Bullet

The news could have been a lot worse. A magnitude 7.4 earthquake (downgraded from a 7.9 from earlier today) struck a rural part of Mexico near the border between Oaxaca and Guerrero at around noon local time earlier today. The effects of the quake, one of the largest of 2012, were felt all the way in Mexico City, some 200 miles away.

Fortunately, the city did not suffer any major structural damage. Reports of fallen bridges, collapsed buildings, and a handful of injuries did result from the quake, but by and large, the city was spared. Nervousness and confusion seemed to be the biggest result, as thousands of office workers evacuated buildings and poured out onto the streets of DF.

Twitter was buzzing immediately after the quake. DF mayor Marcelo Ebrard (@m_ebrard) kept citizens up to date with constant tweets. In the midst of the gravity of the situation, there was no shortage of satirical jokes. Comments about the earthquake being a ‘poke’ from the Mayans in 2012, references to the earthquake being a precursor to what will happen should the PRI win in July, and a comment about the earthquake’s ‘devastating impact on Mexico’s education system’ (oh wait, that actually existed prior to the quake!) were just a handful of most popular tweets that the earthquake provoked.

In the midst of online joking there was some bad news. The government reported at least seven injured and 800 homes destroyed, as well as numerous power outages. The towns near the quake’s epicenter were hit badly, and who knows what other damage has been done to the remote areas where communications are still down. Aftershocks are expected to continue throughout the night (there have already been two 5+ quakes near the epicenter), so the country is not yet out of the clear.

But Mexico dodged a bullet today. The earthquake was relatively shallow (20 km), which is usually correlated with more violent ground shaking than are earthquakes that occur at deeper depths. Recall that the Haiti earthquake of January 2010 was a magnitude 7.0, the devastating Chile quake of March 2010 was an 8.8. Unlike the Chile and Haiti quakes, however, the Mexico quake was in a remote area.

Hopefully today’s positive outcome will be taken as just that – a success for all of Mexico and a sign of improved government – and will not become too politicized with ‘official’ campaigning season around the corner.

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misLEDEing

Hopefully  The Daily Show or Colbert Report will pick up on this one. I took a picture of this headline during Sunday afternoon cable news network programming:

These same motorists also use their cell phones at said gas stations

Other headlines include 'Man Lights Cigarette in Gas-Powered House' and 'Woman Turns on TV during Storm'

The price of gas is a major story here in the US, and drug related violence is a major story in Mexico, particularly among US media. My skepticism about the line’s true impact aside (are enough California motorists doing this to really make it trend-worthy?), I’m troubled because the two, while both important stories, are not at all related.

This isn’t to say that these consumers aren’t assuming a risk if they travel to Mexico. But it is of a different nature: hours of aggravation waiting to cross the border.

San Ysidro Border Crossing

San Ysidro Border Crossing

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Colombia on the International Stage

Today, Colombian president Juan Manuel Santos travels to Havana to meet with Cuban officials and Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez, currently convalescing in a Havana hospital. This hastily planned visit will last just a few hours,but the main item on the agenda holds broader regional significance. Venezuela, Ecuador, Bolivia, and Nicaragua have pledged to boycott the upcoming Sixth Summit of the Americas if Cuba is not invited to participate. As host of the April event, the Santos administration is trying to broker a solution agreeable to all parties.

Michael Bustamante and I wrote a blog entry about Colombia’s emerging role on the international stage for the Council on Foreign Relations’ blog, Latin America’s Moment. You can read the full post here.

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The FARC’s announcement to halt kidnapping: why?

The FARC’s announcement last Sunday that the organization will no longer kidnap civilians was a surprise to most observes and experts of the region. The mainstream media has reported on the event, but has been unsuccessful at explaining why the FARC would do this. In the past 48 hours, online media and blogs have filled this void, providing analysis and discussion on the announcement. Many observers of the region have tried to reverse engineer the thought process of the FARC’s Secretariat  that may have led to the statement, coming up with different results:

–James Bosworth, the author of Bloggings by Boz, suggests that the FARC may be responding to Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez’s illness. Chavez is scheduled to have cancer-related surgery this week in Cuba, causing speculation of the future of Venezuela’s leader. Bosworth argues the FARC leadership may be concerned about how they would survive in a post-Chávez world, and are therefore opening up opportunities for negotiations with the Colombian government.

–Juanita León and Dora Montero Carvajal in La Silla Vacía, Colombia’s growing online news and analysis outlet, argue that the FARC’s announcement was long in the making. They suggest that NGOs had long pressured the FARC to change its policies, and that Alfonso Cano, the FARC’s leader until he was shot dead by military forces last November, had agreed to make this change before his death. Timochenko, who replaced Cano as the FARC’s leader, was committed to making this announcement. The statement posted on the FARC’s website on Sunday is signed by the entire Secretariat, a group of 27 members, León and Carvajal point out, suggesting a strong backing for its content. In terms of what is behind the FARC’s position, León and Carvajal point toward a division among the FARC’s leaders. While some are interested in eventually negotiating with the government, others are leaning at the moment toward demonstrating greater force against the government. Both sides agreed on ending the taking of hostages because both believe doing this supports their strategy.

–Steven Dudley of Insight Crime suggests that the decision is simply “cold economic calculus.” The military’s pressure on the FARC has made it challenging for the organization to carry out successful kidnappings, and as a result kidnappings are no longer a significant source of revenue. The organization raises between US$200 million and US$600 million yearly from taxing drug producers and traffickers, but only about $350,000 from kidnappings, Dudley calculates. If anything, kidnappings have isolated the FARC from some of its followers, and are no longer important for the organization’s finances. As a result, it makes simple economic sense for the organization to quit this practice. In La Silla Vacia, Román Ortíz makes a similar argument.

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What do I think?

The FARC’s decision demonstrates that something worked in pressuring the FARC to change its strategy. There has been a lot of pressure on the FARC, though, and it is difficult (perhaps impossible) to know which factor played the most important role. Steven Dudley’s argument about the FARC’s economic decision makes a lot of sense to me. Dudley believes a lot of this has to do with the armed forces’ military pressure on the FARC–which I am sure is felt. I wonder if within this economic calculus one could also include the impact of the massive civic protests against the FARC, and particularly kidnapping, that have taken place in the last decade. If the FARC values the populations’ support, then the marches and protests may have had an impact. If this is in fact the case, this would be a fabulous case study of a successful civic movement.

I am not convinced with the argument that this is related to last weeks’ turn in Chávez’s illness, as I can’t imagine the entire FARC Secretariat coming together on such an important agreement in a short time period. I also believe there are many more variables at stake. The changing relationship between Venezuela and Colombia that President Santos has fostered, though, must have had a negative impact on the FARC’s perception of its own security in the region in the past year. Venezuela and Colombia have signed security agreements since Santos came to power. The Venezuelan government has extradited suspects wanted by Colombia, and arrested Joaquin Pérez Becerra (more on Pérez Becerra here) in 2011. All of this does not bode well for the FARC, for which Venezeula has been a safe haven at times. I would not be surprised if shifting regional dynamic had an impact.

At the moment, one can only speculate about the reasons behind the FARC’s decision. Perhaps more important than the reasons behind the statement is whether the new policy will actually be implemented, and the impact it will have. History offers good reasons to be skeptical about implementation of the FARC’s new policy. In the released statement it is not clear what will happen to the hundreds of hostages that are currently being held. Many have also pointed out that the FARC did not renounce laying land mines, recruiting children, or extorting civilians and businesses. It is hard to imagine how the organization will continue to extort without kidnapping. Both activities seem to be intrinsically related. Some expect other types of violence to increase. The past 48 hours suggest this is true.  Tracking violence statistics will be important in the next few months to understand what is going on.

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Why Guatemala’s Pérez Molina Is Considering Legalizing Drugs

latin_perez_molina_legalizationGuatemalan President Otto Pérez Molina has been acting strange lately. Just one month after his inauguration, he is already ruffling U.S. feathers, and making waves in the politics of the region in unexpected ways.

Pérez Molina’s military past and hard-line “mano dura” security policy made many worry that he would backtrack on justice reforms led by the UN Commission against Impunity (CICIG) and the new Attorney General Claudia Paz y Paz. Instead, the new president has come out in support of these institutions. Last week he announced that when CICIG’s mandate runs out in 2013, he plans on extending it for another two years without seeking congressional approval. This preemptive decision was in response to a lawsuit filed last month against Álvaro Colom, alleging that CICIG has no right to be in the country because the executive branch bypassed congress to approve its current mandate. The interior minister followed up by asking CICIG to vet his staff to identify any links they may have with organized crime. Vowing to keep Paz y Paz on board for the foreseeable future, Pérez Molina has also stayed neutral as her office tries former de facto President Efraín Ríos Montt on crimes against humanity charges for his role in the civil war (in which the current president was deeply involved).

But after this string of pleasant surprises, Pérez Molina’s most recent about face has drawn annoyance and even anger from the United States. Last Saturday he raised the possibility of legalizing drugs in Central America, saying he’d put the debate on the table in future meetings with regional leaders. He followed through on this promise on Monday, when he discussed decriminalization with Salvadoran President Mauricio Funes (who first agreed to consider the option, and later retracted facing pressure from Washington). The U.S. Embassy in Guatemala responded with a swift condemnation of the proposal.

So what is Pérez Molina’s endgame? A popular theory is that he’s trying to pressure the United States into lifting its ban on weapons sales to Guatemala, instituted in 1978 due to the military’s role in human rights abuses during the civil conflict. This makes sense. The president has spoken openly and frequently about his desire to buy U.S. arms, pressing the issue with head of Southern Command Douglas Fraser during their meeting last November (Fraser said the embargo may well be lifted in the near future). Threatening to decriminalize drugs as a last resort solution the problem of organized crime could pressure the United States to offer an alternative: renewed military aid.

But Pérez Molina may also be making a more ambitious attempt to alter the long-standing foundations of U.S. relations with Guatemala and Central America more broadly. The six-country region has largely been an afterthought in U.S. security cooperation with Latin America, which has historically centered on the larger economies of Colombia and Mexico. In FY2013 Central America will receive $60 million in U.S. security aid– less than half of the funds destined for Colombia and a third of total aid to Mexico – and of that Guatemala gets a paltry $2 million. Meanwhile, Pérez Molina inherited a country with one of the highest murder rates in the world, and an impunity rate of 95 percent (meaning just 5 in every 100 crimes are solved).

The legalization debate is a way of putting Central America – and Guatemala in particular – on the United States’ radar screen. It is also a way of asserting the country’s autonomy from Washington. Pérez Molina joins a long list of leaders calling for decriminalization, including former presidents of Mexico, Brazil and Colombia. In an era of waning American influence in Latin America, he may to be trying to align Guatemala more closely with its regional partners, pulling a country long beholden to the United States out from under its powerful shadow.

This post originally appeared on Latin America’s Moment.

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Stealing the Revolution from the Revolutionaries? Henrique Capriles Radonski’s Challenge to Chávez in Venezuela

To win an election against an incumbent who plays fast and loose with the rules but who also commands significant popular support, is it better to campaign through confrontation or mirroring?

In Venezuela, this is a key dilemma facing the opposition to President Chávez. The victory of Henrique Capriles Radonski, the 39 year-old governor of the large Miranda state and member of the centrist party Primero Justicia (Justice First), in Sunday’s primary elections to be the Mesa de Unidad (Unity Committee) Presidential candidate gives us a strong indication which strategy will be used to try and unseat President Hugo Chávez on October 7, 2012.

In the next seven months of campaigning, the Capriles candidacy is likely to be more about mirroring Hugo Chávez’s governing style than confronting his record. Among the opposition candidates, Capriles polled the best against Chávez but to win, he will need to cross over and gain credibility with independent voters. This may well require a strategy of appropriating some of Chávez’s policies, by, for example, arguing that they represent good ideas in need of different execution to guarantee fairer and efficient outcomes.

Meanwhile, the Chávez candidacy is likely to be about confronting Capriles as a representative of a disloyal opposition and disclaiming there are any real similarities between the ‘people’s President’ and this young politician from a well heeled background. Chávez needs to mobilize his ‘light’ supporters, a heterogeneous group that has not always turned out for him when their votes were needed—abstention helps explain the defeats to Chávez’s constitutional reform in 2007 and to some Chavista congressional and gubernatorial candidates. To rally the Chavista ‘lights,’ Chávez will claim to be the sole guarantor of economic and political stability.

Should they play out this way, these strategies indicate a competition that favors Chávez since, after all, he has to play himself while Capriles has to be himself and part Chávez.

Nevertheless, it is not totally far-fetched to envision Capriles pulling off this very complicated role as the politician that unites a coalition of the hard-core opposition to Chávez (about 35%) and the ordinary actors who see a government trying to help them but failing to inspire loyalty. There is a precedent for forging this coalition, but it took place in a different setting and on a different scale.

Uniting his base with disaffected Chavistas was supposedly the playbook Capriles used in 2008 when he ran for governor in Miranda and defeated a powerful Chavista politician. But, it is important to note, the powerful politician Capriles defeated was perceived to be an incompetent, corrupt administrator while Chávez does not have this reputation.

What Chávez has, however, is a cloud of questions about his health hanging over him. Though he claims to be cured of a cancerous tumor removed from his mid-section last year, rumors swirl that he is not fully recovered. To try and confirm he had returned to full capacity, Chávez gave a nine and a half hour-long speech for Venezuela’s equivalent to the state of union. Nevertheless, his physical appearance is not that of a healthy man, whether this comes from the side effects of steroids or the natural wear and tear that chemotherapy can cause.

It is not clear how questions about Chávez’s health will affect his ability to mobilize his ‘light’ supporters. ‘Los lights’ are generally considered even less enthusiastic about politicians in the President’s party. If they sensed Chávez was in real danger of falling back into remission, then they could decide Capriles is the better man for the job than any Chávez deputy.

The opposition is definitely in its best position ever for fighting Chávez through the ballot. The rebirth of political parties as the main channels of anti-Chávez sentiment and of alternative policy proposals, and the emergence of a new generation of younger politicians that Capriles now heads, has helped the opposition grow democratic legs after a period between 2002-2005 when it seemed addicted to cynical tactics, such as sanctioning a coup that backfired.

The higher than expected turnout in the primary elections (about 15% of the electorate turned out to vote, while 10% would have been satisfactory) won by Capriles is a sign enthusiasm about the opposition is the strongest it has ever been. Yet, there may still be problems ahead for Capriles in terms of locking up infrastructural support from the organizations of his erstwhile competitors. Like the way conservatives are concerned Mitt Romney may really be the center-right mirror of Barack Obama, radical members of the opposition may not support Capriles mirroring Chávez since they want a radical break from the status quo, not a protracted transition.

Capriles will be pressured to confront when his instincts, which have done him quite well so far, will be to mirror through projecting a moderate image. If Capriles can build a candidacy that mirrors Chávez through an authentically alternative image, then he will have performed a miraculous acting job. More importantly, it could win him the part he craves the most, President.

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Concerns with the Brazil Narrative

Thank you to Rio Gringa and Andrew Downie for calling out international coverage of the recent collapse of several buildings in Rio de Janeiro. Numerous English-language media outlets have used the tragic collapses, which left 17 dead and dozens injured, as a platform to talk about infrastructure in Brazil and the country’s preparedness for 2014 and 2016. The latter is a marginally important topic but one whose significance is given disproportionate weight and ink relative to many other issues worthy of coverage in Brazil.

For example, Downie says of his reporting for CSM:

This piece in the Christian Science Monitor about the collapse of three buildings in Rio de Janeiro was supposed to be about Brazil’s housing deficit and the shoddy workmanship that left residents of new houses with damp walls, cracked floor tiles and unpaved roads. All just months after they moved in to their new homes”.

But now, the Rio de Janeiro disaster is the news and the Monitor used that to start off a broader piece about construction, infrastructure projects, and Brazil’s preparedness to host the 2014 World Cup and 2016 Olympics”.

Country narratives like these, as Rachel at Rio Gringa points out, are dangerous because they impact the way foreign audiences interact with a country. Yet they do serve a purpose in that they present the general reader with a heuristic about the place.

Heuristics have value. Among other reasons, we use heuristics to characterize and familiarize ourselves with foreign places (in the current example, Brazil = Samba and bikins). While these are helpful for snap decisions, they make for poor long-form analysis and true comprehension.

Brazil is hardly alone here. Rachel writes that the same phenomenon occurred in South Africa and worries that once 2016 ends, so too will international interest in Brazil:

The same types of speculations were made about South Africa before the World Cup. Things worked out fine, in the end, and they likely will in Brazil, too, even if things wrap up at the last minute or if certain projects have to be abandoned. The more important questions, of whether all of the preparations for the events will benefit Brazil, or if rushing to finish projects for the events will negatively impact the country (as in, buildings collapsing out of thin air), are discussed infrequently outside of Brazil in the mainstream media. It begs to question: once 2016 rolls around, will anyone want to cover Brazil anymore?

My gut reaction to this question is yes but not as much, and only if there is a narrative that will engage foreign audiences about the country the way the sports, sex, and violence can. No small task. While samba and bikinis help draw attention, they create a narrative that distracts from other pressing issues (violence excepted, as urban security is a major concern) and exciting developments (e.g. massive funding for tech startups).

The challenge for Brazil, then, if they wish to change the stereotype, is to leverage this attention to craft a different narrative, one that focuses on less sexy but important topics. Continued headlines about Brazil’s emergence as a global economic power will help and may keep the focus on the country, but probably not as much as China or the Middle East, at least in the United States.

Maybe Brazil doesn’t want to change this image. Studies (they exist) say Brazil is one of the coolest nations. My hunch is that the constant references to carnival, beaches, samba, soccer, etc. are a major reason for this perception. Or maybe it is because changing a country’s image is a supremely difficult task, a fact to which Brazil’s neighbors in Colombia can attest.

Brazil is a country the size of the continental United States with a population of close to 200 million people. Naturally every single issue will not gain mainstream media attention, and the more awareness brought to Brazil, the better (at least through the lens of Latin America observers). In an ideal world, that coverage would be as varied as the country itself. But for now, look for more World Cup and Olympics-related articles.

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Ríos Montt’s Incriminating Self-Defense

Indigenous Maya survivors of the Guatemalan civil war stand with photos of their loved ones, killed or disappeared during the conflict.

Indigenous Maya survivors of the Guatemalan civil war stand with photos of their loved ones, killed or disappeared during the conflict.

Barring any last minute appeals, General (ret) Efraín Ríos Montt will be prosecuted for crimes against humanity during his tenure as de facto President of Guatemala in the early 1980s, the most violent years of the country’s civil war. At a preliminary hearing last Thursday, Judge Patricia Flores declared the 85 year old Ríos Montt fit to stand trial for the murder of some 1,700 civilians, 1,500 rapes of under-aged women and the displacement of 29,000 people.

The decision was historic, but for anyone that was in the courtroom that day – or watched the hearing via the live stream – it should not have come as a surprise. Despite the severity of the charges against him, Ríos Montt barely put up a fight. The retired General refused to speak, saying “I understand what the prosecution is saying and I won’t respond.” His team of lawyers might as well have done the same. Instead, they took a risky approach that may have cost their client any chance of victory.

In the run-up to the hearing, Ríos Montt’s attorneys suggested they would put up a straightforward defense:  the former President cannot be guilty because he was not on the battlefield, and did not directly order the army to commit massacres, rapes, and disappearances. This strategy, while risky, would have made sense: blaming the battlefield commanders for the atrocities would have tested the Guatemalan justice system, which has only ever punished material (and not intellectual) authors of human rights violations. The strategy would have put the onus on the prosecution to prove that the abuses were part of a broader state policy controlled through a rigid military chain of command.

Instead, the defense did their opponents’ work for them. In his statement on Ríos Montt’s behalf, defense lawyer Danilo Rodríguez Galvez acknowledged that the government has a policy of systematic human rights violations (including scorched earth tactics, massacres and rapes), but argued that Ríos Montt was not responsible for this plan because it was conceived before he was president, saying, “You can’t ascribe authorship of that long-term political policy to Rios Montt.”

This approach tests the concept of intellectual authorship, but not in a way that favors the accused. It was as if that the defense were trying to convince the judge that being an intellectual author of a state policy means literally writing it.

She didn’t take the bait. Prosecutors presented documentation showing that Ríos Montt had firm control over the military, including telegrams showing he knew about ground operations and video footage of him claiming to have a tight grip on subordinates. This was enough to prove that Ríos Montt carried out a policy of murder and destruction, even if he didn’t come up with the idea in the first place.

Judge Flores gave the prosecution two months to present a formal accusation against Ríos Montt. Until then, his only option is to stall the process through constitutional injunctions (known as amparos) or appeals. But without a new line of defense, these delay tactics would only prolong the inevitable: the trial of a slam dunk case against Ríos Montt.

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New oil discovery reignites dispute over Falkland Islands, reins in U.S.

A recently-discovered offshore oil deposit that could contain more than 500 million barrels has reignited the dispute over the Falkland Islands’ sovereignty. Las Malvinas, as they are known in Argentina, lie 300 miles off the Argentine coast and were the scene of the Argentina-Britain Falklands War in early 1982.

With the approach of the 30th anniversary of the invasion of the Falkland Islands by Argentine troops comes an elevation in diplomatic tensions. Although British prime minister David Cameron recently called a national security meeting to discuss the Falklands, his government has no immediate plan to bolster military presence. With regard to sovereignty, Cameron underlines the islanders’ right to “self-determination” and has called Argentina’s attitude towards the Islands “colonial.”, an action that has set off repeat protests in Buenos Aires.

Picture 5

Florencio Randazzo, Argentina’s interior minister, immediately called this comment “absolutely offensive,” while president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner called it an “expression of mediocrity and almost of stupidity.” Kirchner wants to open a dialogue between the two countries to negotiate over the Islands, a discourse that the White House now supports.

Though the White House recognizes the U.K. as the administrator of the islands, a January 19th press briefing responded to questions on the subject: “This is a bilateral issue that needs to be worked out directly between the governments of Argentina and the United Kingdom. We encourage both parties to resolve their differences through dialogue in normal diplomatic channels.”

Kirchner has so far succeeded in persuading Mercosur members (Brazil, Uruguay and Paraguay) to close their ports to ships flying a Falkland Islands flag. “But if oil starts to flow, Argentina might seek regional support for an economic blockade,” according to a recent article in the Economist. There’s also a chance Argentina might close its airspace to Falklands-bound flights, according to an article in the Spanish newspaper El Mundo. This could stress relations between Argentina and Chile, since the only carrier to make this flight is Chile’s LAN airlines.

Rockhopper Exploration, the British oil and gas company that made the discovery, is currently seeking co-investors to develop the newly discovered field dubbed ‘Sea Lion.’ First in line is Anadarko Petroleum—a U.S.-based energy company with holdings worldwide and a partner of BP’s in the 2010 Gulf of Mexico oil spill. The company also has ties to the U.S. government; the former commander of United States Strategic Command is on its board of directors.

In April 1982, Argentine forces invaded the islands, ostensibly to divert attention from human rights abuses on the mainland. Less than three months later, British troops dispatched by then prime minister Margaret Thatcher forced Argentina to surrender.

The Falkland Islands have a population of around 2,500.

Photo courtesy of remi de nimega via Flickr.

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On Extraditions and Colombian-Panamanian Ties

Much has been made about Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos’ success at mending relations with his neighbors to the east and south. Rightly so. Given the difficult situation he inherited from his predecessor, this is no small feat.

But Santos’ newest diplomatic test may now come from the north.

On Jan. 3, Panamanian Foreign Minister Roberto Henriquez announced that Panamanian authorities will decide by the end of January whether the country will extradite Maria del Pilar Hurtado, the disgraced former head of Colombia’s now defunct Department of Administrative Security (DAS). Hurtado is wanted in Colombia for her role in the ‘Chuzadas’ (wire tap) scandal during the Uribe administration, in which, among other transgressions, the former Colombian president is accused of using DAS to spy on the communications of his adversaries.

Panamanian authorities granted asylum to Hurtado in November 2010. After more than a year of legal wrangling with international organizations and requests to turn Hurtado over to Colombian authorities, Colombia issued a formal request for Hurtado’s extradition in Dec. 2011 to stand trial for her role in the scandal, which shook the country’s confidence in the DAS and ultimately led to its downfall.

Colombia has been fighting for more than a year to return Hurtado to its post 1903-territory. Should Panama ultimately reject this latest request and allow Hurtado to continue living in asylum in Panama, diplomatic relations between the two countries could worsen. Should this happen, ties between the two countries will likely not reach the same low points as they did with Venezuela and Ecuador, when troops were sent to shore up borders and conflict rhetoric dominated headlines. The extent of any damage to bi-lateral ties hinges on Panama’s decision.

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