How Will Colombians Vote This Sunday?

In the Americas Quarterly blog I explain that most Colombians won’t vote this Sunday.

Of those who will vote, about a tenth of them will mistakenly submit invalid ballots.

And many of those presenting valid ballots will will unknowingly support candidates other than their own.

You can read the entire post at the Americas Quarterly blog.

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Venezuelan-Colombian Relations at World Politics Review

Diplomatic relations between Colombia and Venezuela have been at the front lines since a Spanish judge accused Venezuela of assisting FARC rebels on March 1, two years to the day after a raid by Colombian soldiers in Ecuador prompted one of the worst regional diplomatic disputes in recent memory.

The accusations are hardly new; in fact, top US diplomat for the region Arturo Valenzuela made a similar claim on March 10.

The claims aggravate a sensitive issue between Colombia and Venezuela. For the past eight years, Alvaro Uribe has made eliminating the FARC the key piece of his strategy to improve security in Colombia. Last week, he pledged to dedicate his remaining months in office towards this end. The accusation that a neighboring state is helping the very group Colombia is trying to destroy, while Colombia is helping the very ally (Washington) the Bolivarian Revolution is trying to topple, has a lot to do with the mutual animosity.

LatAmThought recently wrote an article for World Politics Review analyzing the contentious relationship between Colombia and Venezuela,  the possibility for a change in the status quo in the immediate future, and a comparison with the Colombia’s improving ties with Ecuador.

The article can be found at World Politics Review.

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How To Vote in Colombia

Voting in Colombia can be confusing, so I have created a 5-minute video that explains in Spanish in simple terms how to vote this March. Please share with Colombians  you may know.

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Why Not Being Disliked is as Powerful as Being Liked

I recently wrote an article for the Americas Quarterly blog in which I argued that in Colombia’s second round of elections for the presidency not being disliked may be even more of a deciding factor than being liked by voters. 

Campaign Season in Colombia

Colombian President Álvaro Uribe and his allies were already taking candidate-like precautions before the country’s Constitutional Court ruled in a 7-2 decision that his run for a third term would be unconstitutional.

Juan Manuel Santos, one of Uribe’s closest disciples and a former defense minister, refused to launch his campaign as long as the possibility existed of a third term for Uribe.  Meanwhile, other candidates and pre-candidates for the presidency limited their campaign activity while waiting waited for the rules of the game to be set.

Continue reading this post at the Americas Quarterly blog.

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Disheartening Aspects of Colombia’s Congressional Elections

Some things may be comical when you see them in movies, yet somewhat worrying when they are part of the democracy you count on.

mariafernandavalenciaSuch is the case with María Fernanda Valencia, Candidate for the Partido de la U, who made it to the front cover of the Colombian magazine Soho (a classier version of the U.S. Maxim) by promising to appear naked in the issue after the March 14 elections if she is elected to the House of Representatives. In the interview with Soho she seems sharp and witty as she explains that getting naked is only the first step to “undressing a political reality.” She argues that getting naked is not bad, especially when compared to all the other promises and negotiations politicians are making in the run up to the elections. While the interview makes it hard to entirely dismiss her, her main campaign promise may not be the brightest in a country that already suffers from a delegitimized Congress. 

auracristinageithnerValencia is not the only candidate that seems to be betting mostly on her looks. Former model and actress Aura Cristina Geithner is running with the Partido Liberal for the Senate with a theme song that repeatedly describes her as a ‘bizcocho,’ slang roughly translated as ‘hottie. ‘The Facebook group “Aura Cristina…A Goddess” has about 3 times as many members as the group “Aura Cristina…for the Senate,” perhaps reflecting her voter base. Geithner apparently believes, and she may not be wrong, that the theme song and her pictures are all she needs to win. Most of her website, less than two weeks before elections, is still under construction. 

nicolas_uribeMeanwhile negative campaigns have also shown their face. Cambio Radical’s House of Representatives candidate Santiago Morales has run with the slogan “Bogotá Does Not Have a Mayor,” promising that he will work to remove the city’s mayor. His website hosts a Facebook application that allows you to throw tomatoes at the mayor. The Partido de la U’s Nicolas Uribe, whose winning feature may just be sharing the president’s last name (his radio ads state, “Would you like to see Uribe in the Senate?”), has jumped on the bandwagon, hosting a web-based game on his site in which you first wake up the mayor and then can try to make him build a metro, fix potholes, or even pick up your trash. 

Will these candidates get a seat in Congress? I’ll update you after the March 14 elections.

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Beyond Playa del Carmen: Tourism and Diplomacy in Ecuador and Colombia

Last week’s Rio Summit between high ranking dignitaries of the Americas – The United States and Canada conspicuously excluded – produced a number of notable events:

  • The announcement of the creation of a Brazil-led regional bloc to convene in July 2011
  • Universal regional support for Argentina’s sovereignty claim in the Falklands (Malvinas)
  • Uribe’s challenge “heard round the Spanish-speaking world” for Chávez to “be a man”
  • Improvement in Ecuadorian-Colombian relations

Yesterday, 1 March 2010, marked the two-year anniversary of the death of Raúl Reyes, a former leading FARC commander. Reyes’ death on Ecuadorian soil at the hands of the Colombian military provoked an ongoing diplomatic spat with Ecuador that has frozen diplomatic relations between the two nations and provoked the already sensitive issue of regional sovereignty.

During a late-night meeting at a luxury hotel in Mexico on 22 February, Correa and Uribe met and announced a plan to restore relations to normal. No date, time, or specifics were given, but the intention to normalize relations – an elusive concept that previous reconciliation attempts failed to achieve over the past two years – was established.

The agreement involves each nation relinquishing a previously held stance. Colombia must surrender information; including where the Colombian aircraft involved during the attack departed, where they were manufactured, and the information on Reyes’ laptop that suggested the FARC had well-established operations within Ecuadorian borders. In return, Ecuador will exonerate Juan Manuel Santos, the leader in early polls for Colombia’s upcoming May 2010 presidential election, from pending charges for his role in the attack.

The two nations also agreed towards mutual cooperation in fighting a surge in violence along the Colombian-Ecuadorian border. On 2 March 2010, Ecuadorian authorities announced the creation of five new bases in Esmeraldas and Carchi provinces to combat drug smuggling.

Tourism as Diplomacy

Security and politics are not the only two ways the two nations are mending ties.

A few days later, on 24-26 February 2010 at a tourism convention in Bogotá, Ecuador revealed their USD 345,000 “Four Worlds” campaign to promote Ecuador as a tourist destination for Colombian travelers. After the United States, Colombia is Ecuador’s second largest market for international tourists. As the campaign suggests, disagreements between governments are no reason to discourage tourism and mutual cultural and monetary benefits. For the Ecuadorian government, promoting Ecuador as a tourist destination in Colombia makes business sense. Politics seems to have refreshingly little to do with the decision.

It also may be a way to heal animosity between the two nations. Colombia knows very well the power of “soft power” cultural initiatives. Their government-funded “Colombia es Pasión” campaign has been well received internationally as a way of creating positive publicity and attempting to change the nation’s image by encouraging people to visit Colombia. Many nations have intercultural exchange programs as a way of promoting mutual cultural understanding. Visiting another country is perhaps the best way to do this.

In reality, Colombian tourists visiting the Galapagos will probably not have much impact on policy. But small initiatives that lead to immediate, tangible results – such as money for those working in the tourism industry in Ecuador – are sometimes just as important.

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Election Season in Colombia

The Constitutional Court’s ruling last night blocking the possibility of President Uribe’s reelection lifted a weight off the country’s shoulders. Even Uribe, who found out about the Court’s decision through his Blackberry at a a press conference about health reform in Barranquilla, reacted with a nervous smile.

Many Colombians, who heard the news over television and radio waves as the sun crept down last night, had the same reaction.

In Bogotá some went to celebrate in front of the Supreme Court’s building or the presidential palace, or in the city’s historic Plaza de Bolívar, but overall the city did not feel joyous nor sad. Anxiety, perhaps, sums up a lot of the emotions being felt here. 

While it is clear to many that amending the state’s constitution so that the president could run for a third consecutive term would have been an insult to Colombia’s democracy,  it is hard at this moment not to be nervous about what will happen after August 2010. Regardless of one’s opinion of the president, for those living here there is no doubt that the country has become safer for rich and poor alike in the past 7.5 years. A reversal in this regard is simply not an option. 

This explains Juan Manuel Santos‘ standing at the top of the list among candidates for the presidency. President Uribe’s former defense minister and now president of the U Party, he had sworn only to run for the presidency if Uribe were unable to run. Last night, he refused to speak with reporters he had gathered in Cartagena until after President Uribe had spoken and then vowed to give continuity to the president’s policies. “We can’t reelect him, but we will reelect democratic security, social cohesion, and investor’s confidence,” he exclaimed.

Andres Felipe Arias, pre-candidate for the Conservative Party, believes he is competing with Santos for Uribe’s blessing to be the country’s next president. This morning, after meeting with Uribe he virtually repeated Santo’s words, ”I will seek the presidency, in order to continue defending in a genuine and sincere manner, from my Conservative Party, the work of the President, democratic security, confidence for investment and employment, and social cohesion.” He posted this statement on his page next to pictures of him shaking hands with the president today. In order to run, though, Arias must first win the Conservative Party primary elections this March. Currently Noemi Sanin is in the lead and Arias’ tainted reputation due to the Agro Ingreso Seguro Scandal makes him an unlikely candidate. 

While some are waiting to see who Uribe will point to as his preferred candidate, most Colombians are now beginning to ask themselves who they will vote for in May.  There are many interesting options. Besides those mentioned above, independent Sergio Fajardo, former mayor of Medelin, is currently Santo’s strongest competitor in all polls, with some forecasting he could beat Santos in a second round. German Vargas Lleras from Partido Cambio Radical, who labels himself as an “anti-relection Uribista,” is perhaps the candidate who has proposed the most concrete policies. Liberal Rafael Pardo, former defense minister and senator, is one of the most experienced candidates. The Polo Democratico is backing Gustavo Petro, one of Uribe’s strongest critics. 

The discussion is no longer whether Uribe will run, but who is running and what they have to offer. Four months before elections, campaign season has finally started.

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Investigative Journalism in Colombia

Many of our readers are likely already aware of last week’s announcement of the end of Cambio, perhaps Colombia’s most important source for investigative journalism. While the Casa Editorial El Tiempo, which owns Cambio, claims that the decision to turn this weekly investigative magazine into a monthly magazine on tourism and travel reflects market trends, the magazine’s now fired editor Maria Elvira Samper and director Rodrigo Pardo claim the decision was a direct result of the magazine’s investigative work. The two have shared numbers on the magazine’s profits, which make a strong case. The Casa Editorial El Tiempo is owned by the Spanish Grupo Planeta-the Spanish speaking world’s largest publisher-and the Santos family (same one as current Vice-President Santos and former Defense Minister Santos). Regardless of the specific reasons that led the Editorial Board to close down Cambio, its disappearance is a loss to Colombian democracy. 

Since its founding in 1994 Cambio has played a crucial role in providing journalistic oversight over politicians’ corrupt doings. In 1995 Cambio journalist Maria Cristina Caballero began to reveal presidential candidate Ernesto Samper’s supposed links to the Cali Cartel, in what then led to the ‘Proceso 8000′. Just last year, Cambio reported in August on Colombia’s growing urban insecurity, arguing it could be President Uribe’s security policy’s Achilees Heel.  Then in October Cambio broke the story on Agro Ingreso Seguro (AIS), a program managed by Colombia’s Ministry of Agriculture that was intended to benefit small rural land holders, but was used instead to channel millions of state dollars to some of Colombia’s most prominent large landowners. This nation-wide scandal directly implicated President Uribe’s former Agriculture Minister, Andrés Felipe Arias, who had quit his post in order to run for the presidency if Uribe is unable to this year. Two weeks later the magazine leaked sections of the secret agreement between the United States and Colombia that would allow the U.S. to use a number of Colombian bases, which led to the worse diplomatic spat Colombia has had with its neighbors in recent memory. In November 2009 Cambio published a summary of a report by the think tank Corporación Nuevo Arcoiris that argeud that President Uribe’s seguridad democrática strategy had reached its peak and was beginning to show its weak spots. These and other reports, as one can imagine, made many uncomfortable and earned the magazine and its leadership strong criticism from government officials. 

On February 3rd Samper and Pardo were told they would have to step down in 3 weeks and they decided to dedicate their next issue to explaining why Cambio was being shut down. But their work was stopped short.  On February 8th they were asked to leave immediately and the magazine’s latest issue went unpublished.

Election season, perhaps more than any other time, requires strong press oversight, and so Cambio will be especially missed in the coming months. Although none of the following publications can compare to Cambio’s analytical and investigative capacity, for those who were counting on Cambio for analysis and information on the upcoming elections, here are a few alternate recommendations: 

Votebien.com: This webpage, which has existed since the 2002 elections, is the result of an alliance among journalistic entities with the purpose of helping Colombians inform themselves about upcoming elections. Some of the best analytical work on candidates, parties, and the elections themselves will be found here.  Semana, Terra, Caracol Radio, Colprensa, Fescol, Congreso Visible, UNDP, and the Colombian chapter of Transparency International are all partners. The website has a very complete guide for journalists covering the elections, which is helpful for anyone who wants to better understand Colombia’s electoral system. 

Congresovisible.org: This project, started in 1998 by the Universidad de los Andes’ Political Science Department, seeks to provide follow-up and analysis on congressional politics. The website is mostly useful for its statistical tools. The “Candidates 2010″ section of Congreso Visible will hopefully be one of the most useful tools in tracking the upcoming March elections. 

Elecciones.com.co: This recently-launched private website seeks to provide easy-to-read information on every candidate and the ability to compare them side-by-side, similar to the service Glass Booth offers for U.S. elections. It does not provide analysis, but allows you to see how every candidate is profiling him/herself. While a month away from Congressional elections it still lacks information on many candidates, the website is definitely gaining steam and could become a useful source of information.

Lasillavacia.com: Funded by the Open Society, this small online publication has published some of the best in-depth analysis into parties and candidates so far. A recent article profiles many of the top candidates as seen by their right-hand men/women. 

Verdadabierta.com: This webpage is the result of an agreement between the magazine Semana and the think-tank Ideas para la Paz with the purpose of working together in order to get to the truth about the conflict in Colombia. The “Parapolitics” section will hopefully soon be an important source in order to understand the role that politicians who may have ties with paramilitarism will have in the 2010 elections. 

 —RazónPública.com: This non-profit organization publishes analysis and opinion pieces by Colombian intellectuals with the purpose of furthering debate on political issues. While so far much of the debate is about the possibility of amending the constitution to allow Uribe’s re-election, this website will surely provide strong analysis as the elections draw near. 

If you know of any other useful sources, please comment below.

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33 in Haiti are tip of insidious iceberg

One of the most horrific stories from the Haiti earthquake that has captured the public’s attention was the arrest of 10 American nationals for attempting to smuggle 33 Haitian children into the Dominican Republic without proper documentation, presumably for adoption abroad. The Christian Science Monitor has good coverage on one of the underreported parts of the story: the status of the children.

The story, which attracted attention from the international media, calls to mind an equally horrific and underreported scheme that has been going on in many Latin American (and many other non Latin-American) countries long before the earthquake’s devastation: The stealing of newborns and small children for adoption abroad and illegal organ transplants and trafficking.

Events such as the following are part of the reason why international adoption is such a hotly contested issue: On 5 February 2010, La Tribuna, a Honduran daily, reported on the reemergence of the roba-chicos, literally “child snatchers” in Honduran hospitals. The story in La Tribuna tells of a 20 year-old Honduran woman who, after giving birth to a baby girl on 3 February 2010, had her baby stolen by a woman whom she had trusted to help care for the baby.

Sadly, the story of the 33 Haitians and the 20 year-old Honduran woman are not simply isolated incidents, but rather examples of one of the world’s most depraved businesses (and one that strikes a nerve with an international audience): Illegal and/or forced adoptions. The business, like all businesses both legal and illegal, is driven by demand for children and the lucrative reward for securing them. The BBC has an in-depth story about the practice dating back to 2000, focusing on Guatemala, which has the highest per-capita adoption rate in the world. The story, together with recent reports from UNICEF, suggests that the 33 people who received international attention are sadly just a drop in the bucket of an overarching problem facing many poorer countries in the region.

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Venezuelan Influence in Nicaraguan Media

Another opposition media outlet has fallen. And it’s not in Venezuela.

Albanisa, a Venezuelan-owned conglomerate that controls below market-value Venezuelan oil imports in Nicaragua and has business ties to Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega, recently announced the formal purchase of Canal 8, a leading anti-Ortega media outlet, for US$10 million. The deal, which went through in December 2009, was formalized during the week of 25 January 2010.

The deal was facilitated in large part by Telcor, a Nicaraguan state-owned telecommunications regulator, whose director, Orlando Castillo, was a former high-ranking employee at Canal 4, another media outlet with close ties to the Ortega family.

Some analysts believe this move, which would not have been possible without the financial assistance of Venezuelan state-owned PDVSA, is an attempt by Daniel Ortega to control media and communications in preparation for constitutional reforms that would allow for his re-election in 2011. Currently, the Nicaraguan constitution forbids presidents to run for consecutive terms, although in October 2009, Ortega declared that provision inapplicable at a time when Nicaragua’s Supreme Court (CSJ) was not in full attendance to approve/disapprove. No date has been set for the official CSJ ruling.

The timing of the deal comes during the same week that Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez announced he would suspend the license of RCTV, a leading opposition network in Venezuela, along with five other TV stations for not airing pro-Chavez messaging.

Albanisa is backed financially by ALBA, the Venezuelan-led alliance of left-leaning nations in the Americas, of which Nicaragua is the only Central American member. Ortega and Chávez are close regional allies; The two leaders met recently in Managua to sign agreements in agriculture, and Chávez has promised Nicaragua subsidized oil and other services. Yet in spite of his close allegiance to Chávez, representatives of Ortega’s administration say Ortega has no intention of “becoming the next Chávez.” The move to take an opposition station off the air suggests otherwise.

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